These contrarian virologists & epidemiologists are mostly saying that it would be better to let the epidemic run its course, right? That is, to let the exponential growth resume until a natural limit is reached? It's true that all this social distancing is only delaying the inevitable, unless there's some accepted treatment or vaccine.They discuss that many virologists and epidemiologists are agreeing that the lockdowns are ineffective,
Word on Twitter is that there might never be a completed double blind trial for HCQ. Because of the highly polarized, sectarian debate in the MSM, nearly everybody now has a strong opinion. Trump fans and Fox News viewers are sure it's effective, while the CNN and MSNBC audience are just as convinced it's a dangerous toxin that's likely to cause heart failure. So it's practically impossible to find volunteers willing to take a random chance on being assigned to the wrong group.
Here's the data:Gov. Cuomo admitted the other day that most of the deaths now are coming from people staying at home, besides the nursing home deaths.
Of New York's recent COVID-19 hospitalizations, 66 percent came from home, 18 percent came from nursing homes, 4 percent came from assisted living facilities, 2 percent were homeless and less than 1 percent came from jails and prison, the data show.
Leaving, presumably, 9% "essential workers". To judge whether social distancing at home is more or less safe than working or living in a congregate situation, you'd also need to know what percentage of individuals fall into each category.
Nationwide, 1.5 million people live in nursing homes, which would be 0.5%. If New York's percentage of nursing home inhabitants is similar, the rate of hospitalization of nursing home residents is 36 times greater than the rate of the entire population. This makes sense, given that congregate living is likely to be more dangerous, and old age and poor health are also major risk factors.
The incarceration rate in the US is about 0.6%. Again, if New York follows the national pattern, the numbers here would suggest that prison living is about 2x more dangerous than living on the outside. Congregate living would be a contributing factor; old age and poor health, not so much.
There are about 17 million healthcare workers in the US, but most of those would not be especially at risk because they're more likely to be laid off and staying home, rather than working with covid patients. There are 2.7 million grocery workers, or just under 1% of the population. Many other workers fall into the "essential" category, and I'm at a loss how to count them. But it seems reasonable to guess that they would total less than 9% of the population, and that they're getting sick at a higher rate than average.
The raw numbers above seem to indicate that sheltering at home isn't especially safe, either. But we don't know how closely everyone is following the guidelines.
Shh... don't tell Gertie the cow...Besides milk thickening the mucous, I am of the school that adult mammals should not regularly consume it, except as a necessary part of some recipe.